Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, has been nominated by French President Emmanuel Macron to be the next French prime minister. Barnier’s nomination comes amidst political deadlock in France, and his return to frontline politics has stirred unease among British Eurosceptics. As a key figure in the Brexit negotiations, Barnier is remembered for his firm stance and critical view of Brexit, calling it a “lose-lose game” for both the UK and the EU.
His appointment has prompted figures like Nigel Farage to express concern that Barnier’s influence could push the UK closer to the EU, especially given Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s expressed interest in renegotiating post-Brexit deals to reduce trade barriers and enhance cooperation in areas like security and defence. While Barnier’s role as prime minister would likely focus on domestic issues in France, his previous experience as a European commissioner and Brexit negotiator suggests he may also have a hand in shaping France’s foreign policy, particularly in relation to the UK. His nomination comes at a time when Anglo-French relations are set to be tested, with an Anglo-French summit scheduled for 2025 in London.
The Good
- Experienced Leadership: Michel Barnier brings vast experience in European politics, having served as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator and a former European commissioner. His familiarity with complex political situations could help France navigate its current political deadlock effectively.
- Potential for Improved UK-EU Relations: Barnier has long advocated for stronger cooperation between the UK and the EU, particularly in areas like security and defence. His appointment could lead to the strengthening of ties between the two, fostering more stable diplomatic and economic relations.
- European Unity: Barnier’s appointment could reinforce the vision of European unity, as he remains a strong believer in the EU’s mission and the importance of collaborative international relations. This stance could benefit not only France but the broader EU.
- Post-Brexit Cooperation: For businesses and policymakers keen on reducing Brexit-related trade barriers, Barnier’s approach might be beneficial. His potential influence on regulatory alignment could ease trade frictions between the UK and the EU, benefitting industries affected by post-Brexit restrictions.
- Domestic Focus: While Barnier’s European experience is well-known, experts predict that his primary focus as prime minister would be addressing France’s internal challenges. This could provide the stability France currently needs, contributing to broader European stability.
The Bad
- Concerns for UK Sovereignty: Many British Eurosceptics, including Nigel Farage, view Barnier’s appointment as a threat to the UK’s post-Brexit sovereignty. His reputation as a staunch EU advocate raises fears that his influence might encourage closer alignment with EU regulations, eroding the UK’s independence in decision-making.
- Potential Strain on Anglo-French Relations: Given Barnier’s history of tough negotiations with the UK, there are concerns that his leadership in France could lead to tensions, especially if the UK pursues policies that conflict with EU preferences. This could create diplomatic challenges for both nations.
- Reinforced Euroscepticism in the UK: Barnier’s appointment could fuel further Euroscepticism within the UK, particularly among those who believe that Brexit was meant to create a clean break from the EU. His involvement in French politics could be perceived as an ongoing reminder of the UK’s difficult exit from the bloc.
- Discontent Among French Eurosceptics: Within France, Eurosceptic factions might view Barnier’s appointment unfavourably, as he represents a figure deeply embedded in the European project. This could exacerbate political divisions within France, particularly amongst nationalist and right-wing groups.
- Economic Uncertainty for the UK: Barnier’s insistence that the UK cannot “pick and choose” EU benefits might complicate any attempts by the UK to renegotiate trade deals. This could lead to prolonged uncertainty for businesses, especially those reliant on streamlined trade relations with the EU.
The Take
Michel Barnier’s nomination as French prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron marks a significant development in both French domestic politics and European international relations. Known primarily for his role as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier has a reputation for being a firm and effective political operator. His return to the political stage has drawn reactions from across Europe, particularly in the UK, where his role in the lengthy and often contentious Brexit negotiations is still fresh in the minds of many.
Barnier’s tenure as Brexit negotiator was characterised by his unwavering belief that the UK’s decision to leave the EU was a mistake — a “lose-lose game,” as he once put it. Throughout the Brexit process, he was seen as a tough but fair negotiator, someone who upheld the interests of the EU while also working towards a resolution that would allow both parties to move forward. However, this firmness in dealing with the UK has left some British Eurosceptics, such as Nigel Farage, wary of his influence. Farage, leader of the Reform UK party, has voiced concerns that Barnier’s appointment could align with Keir Starmer’s government in ways that bring the UK closer to the EU, undoing much of what was achieved through Brexit.
These concerns are not entirely without merit. Starmer has made it clear that his government seeks to renegotiate aspects of the UK’s Brexit deal, particularly in areas that create unnecessary red tape for British businesses. Barnier, who has always maintained that the UK cannot pick and choose which EU benefits it wants without accepting the accompanying responsibilities, could be a significant player in any future negotiations between the UK and France, or even the broader EU. His appointment may lead to increased pressure on the UK to align more closely with EU regulations in exchange for smoother trade relations and cooperation in areas like security and defence.
For many in the UK, particularly those who championed Brexit as a way to regain control over British laws and borders, this is a worrying prospect. The idea of regulatory alignment with the EU, even in a limited capacity, feels like a step backwards. Barnier’s history as a tough negotiator only heightens these concerns. Figures like former Tory minister Jacob Rees-Mogg have expressed a grudging respect for Barnier, acknowledging his capabilities while also emphasising that he is “no friend of the UK.”
However, it’s important to note that Barnier’s immediate focus as French prime minister is likely to be domestic. France has been in a state of political deadlock for months, and Barnier’s nomination comes as part of Macron’s efforts to break this impasse. While Barnier’s past as a European commissioner and his involvement in the Brexit process will undoubtedly influence his outlook, experts like Sébastien Maillard from the Chatham House foreign policy think tank believe that Barnier’s primary concerns will be at home, dealing with France’s internal political challenges.
Nevertheless, Barnier’s deep involvement in European politics means that his appointment could have broader implications for France’s foreign relations. His belief in the importance of EU unity and cooperation could shape his approach to dealing with the UK, especially with an Anglo-French summit scheduled for 2025 in London. As the UK and France prepare for this key diplomatic meeting, it’s clear that Barnier’s presence will be a significant factor.
While some British critics may fear that Barnier’s return to frontline politics could push the UK closer to the EU, others see it as an opportunity for improved relations. Barnier has consistently advocated for closer cooperation between the UK and the EU, particularly in areas like security, defence, and migration. As the UK seeks to redefine its place on the world stage post-Brexit, having a stable and cooperative relationship with one of its closest neighbours could be beneficial.
Barnier’s nomination as French prime minister is a bold move by Macron, signalling a desire for strong leadership during a period of political uncertainty. For the UK, his appointment presents both challenges and opportunities. Whether Barnier will ultimately be a force for cooperation or confrontation in UK-EU relations remains to be seen, but his experience and political acumen ensure that he will be a key player on the European stage for years to come.
