On the 929th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian drones were reported to have violated the airspace of two NATO countries: Romania and Latvia. Romania, targeted during Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, deployed F-16 warplanes to monitor its airspace, though no damage was reported. Latvia faced a similar situation when a Russian drone entered its airspace from Belarus, but it, too, found no direct intent behind the incident. These incursions were condemned by NATO, which labelled the actions “irresponsible and potentially dangerous.”
Meanwhile, pro-Putin candidates in Russia were projected to win various local elections, seen as a show of confidence in the Kremlin’s policies, including its military actions in Ukraine. On the battlefield, Russia continued its attacks, leading to casualties in Sumy and Donetsk, while Ukraine retaliated by attacking a fuel depot in Russia’s Belgorod region. In another development, the death toll from a recent Russian missile strike on a military academy in Poltava rose to 58, while more than 320 people were injured.
In a significant diplomatic note, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed that any future peace conference involving Ukraine must include Russia as a key player.
The Good
- NATO’s Unified Stance: The incident involving Russian drones entering NATO airspace in Romania and Latvia has prompted swift condemnation from NATO. The alliance’s unified response signals that it remains vigilant in its commitment to collective security. This strengthens the security framework for its member countries and reassures smaller nations in Eastern Europe, particularly those bordering Russia, that NATO will uphold its defence obligations.
- Ukrainian Resistance: Ukraine continues to demonstrate its ability to defend itself despite the prolonged conflict. Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian fuel depot, showing their capacity to strike back strategically. This highlights their resilience and tactical adaptability, which will boost morale within the country and among their allies.
- Peace Talks Involvement: The potential for a peace conference involving Russia, as suggested by Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, could pave the way for diplomatic engagement. Including Russia in talks is a pragmatic approach, potentially opening a path to negotiation and a possible end to hostilities, which would be a significant positive step for global peace efforts.
- Civilian Safety Measures: Romania’s swift reaction to the airspace violation, deploying F-16 fighter jets and issuing warnings to its citizens, demonstrates a robust civil defence system. This reassures civilians living in border regions that their safety remains a priority, mitigating the risk of casualties despite the looming threat of conflict.
- Attention to War Crimes: The continued reporting on civilian deaths and Russian strikes serves as a reminder to the international community about the human cost of this war. This keeps pressure on global institutions to address war crimes, potentially leading to greater accountability and future legal actions against perpetrators.
The Bad
- Escalation Risk: The incursion of Russian drones into NATO airspace raises serious concerns about the potential for unintentional escalation. Any accidental strikes or miscommunications could trigger a broader conflict, drawing NATO fully into the war. The situation is especially tense given that both incidents involved countries close to the Ukrainian border.
- Civilians Caught in Crossfire: The death toll continues to rise, with civilians frequently caught in the crossfire. Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities like Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv are causing widespread devastation. The deaths of women, children, and other non-combatants exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, which seems far from ending.
- Controlled Elections in Russia: The results of the local elections in Russia suggest a consolidation of power for pro-Putin forces. The elections, largely seen as tightly controlled and undemocratic, signal the continued stifling of political dissent in Russia. This further entrenches authoritarianism in the country and prolongs the conflict as Putin’s government remains unchallenged domestically.
- Continued Destruction of Infrastructure: Both Ukrainian and Russian infrastructure are being systematically destroyed in the ongoing conflict. Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, such as ports and cities, are crippling essential services, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel depots suggest that economic and military damage will be long-lasting on both sides.
- Increased Casualties: The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a military academy in Poltava has risen to 58, highlighting the continued lethality of the conflict. This brings into focus the long-term physical and psychological toll on both soldiers and civilians, as thousands more are injured, displaced, or killed in an ongoing war of attrition.
The Take
The Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of resolution as it enters its third year, marked by continuous conflict, escalating tensions, and significant global ramifications. Recent developments, including airspace violations by Russian drones in NATO countries Romania and Latvia, point to the growing complexity of the conflict and the increasing potential for an international incident. The intrusion of drones, while not confirmed as intentional acts, highlights the thin line between maintaining a regional conflict and escalating into a broader war that could involve more NATO members.
NATO’s response to the drone incursions has been swift, with both Romania and Latvia downplaying the likelihood of intentional attacks. However, the fact that Russian drones are flying into NATO airspace is a significant escalation. Romania’s quick deployment of F-16 fighter jets and its immediate communication with civilians through text alerts show that NATO is taking such violations seriously. Mircea Geoană, NATO’s outgoing deputy secretary general, was quick to condemn these acts as “potentially dangerous.” The incident has, however, underlined that despite such provocations, NATO is keen to avoid direct involvement in the war, at least for now.
In the background of these aerial violations is the ongoing and brutal ground conflict. In Ukraine, the war continues to exact a heavy toll on civilians. Cities like Sumy and Donetsk are under regular bombardment, with airstrikes causing significant casualties. In just one day, Sumy reported the deaths of two civilians, including children, while Russian forces launched at least 16 “glide bombs” on the city. This tactic, which uses gravity to increase bomb velocity, indicates a renewed intensity in Russia’s air campaign. As the war progresses, Russia’s strategy appears to be increasingly focused on causing maximum destruction to civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, with devastating humanitarian consequences.
Meanwhile, Russia has also faced retaliation. Ukrainian forces have struck back by attacking fuel depots in the Belgorod region, a key logistics centre for Russian military operations. This shows that while Ukraine remains largely on the defensive, it retains the capacity to strike strategically. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s forces are demonstrating resilience even in the face of heavy Russian bombardments.
Politically, the war has bolstered Vladimir Putin’s standing within Russia. Local elections held over the weekend are expected to result in sweeping victories for pro-Kremlin candidates, reinforcing Putin’s control. While these elections were tightly controlled, the results are likely to be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Putin’s leadership and his ongoing war efforts. The lack of meaningful opposition in Russia suggests that, domestically, Putin remains firmly in power, which likely means that the war will continue for the foreseeable future.
On the diplomatic front, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted at a potential peace conference in the future, one that would include Russia as a key player. While peace may seem distant given the current state of the conflict, the fact that discussions are happening at high levels is a small glimmer of hope. However, the inclusion of Russia in these talks is a contentious point. For many Ukrainians, negotiating with the aggressor may feel like a betrayal, especially as Russian forces continue to bombard their cities.
Looking ahead, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The daily toll of civilian deaths and military casualties continues to rise, and with it, the risk of an international escalation grows. The fact that Russia’s drones are now violating NATO airspace, whether by accident or design, signals a dangerous new phase in the war. Both NATO and Ukraine must remain vigilant and prepared for any further escalations.
